forecasting

When Good Things DON’T Come to Those Who Wait: How Pharma Companies Compare in Governance Efficiency

2019-07-31T15:54:00+00:00

Predicting when a competing product will be approved is essential in any commercial forecast and for any business insights team with their eye on the market.  Here at OZMOSI, we have been spending our summer building out a machine learning approach to further improve our drug approval date forecasting.  Typically, the industry uses a simple average of phase lengths by disease area. While we have employed a similar approach historically, with 400,000 clinical trials in our database (and counting) we feel we can do better. In our analysis to date, we have gained some interesting perspective on the elements that go [...]

When Good Things DON’T Come to Those Who Wait: How Pharma Companies Compare in Governance Efficiency2019-07-31T15:54:00+00:00

Pharma Forecasting Case Study – Shaping R&D Strategy

2017-07-18T20:13:13+00:00

The oncology team of a major multinational pharmaceutical company asked Ozmosi to provide additional forecasting support for a newly acquired product. They needed to update and validate the current forecast models to identify the most effective development strategies for the compound across all indications. The team was concerned with how to get their product to the most critical patients and wanted to explore strategies to maximize market share and minimize losses to cannibalization. Ozmosi provided global forecasts for multiple indications across multiple products, assessing the value impact of multiple development scenarios. The scenarios we developed considered the effects of differences in [...]

Pharma Forecasting Case Study – Shaping R&D Strategy2017-07-18T20:13:13+00:00

PHARMA FORECASTING CASE STUDY – Estimating the Prevalence of Orphan Diseases

2017-07-18T19:40:24+00:00

When in-house experts’ forecasts for the market potential of a treatment for an orphan disease conflicted, the management team at a large, multinational pharmaceutical company turned to Ozmosi to resolve the differences. Addressing the central questions required a full literature review, including analysis of more than 30 individual studies released between the 1990s and 2013, as well as physician surveys, internal studies, advisory board results, and other sources. We also conducted in-depth interviews with the company’s two in-house epidemiology experts working on the project. Projections were complicated by the fact that the disease, which affects fewer than 10 people per million, [...]

PHARMA FORECASTING CASE STUDY – Estimating the Prevalence of Orphan Diseases2017-07-18T19:40:24+00:00

Pharma Forecasting Case Study – Valuing the Impact of Development Delays

2017-07-18T19:41:48+00:00

A multinational pharmaceutical firm asked Ozmosi to provide forecasts to assess the market impact of delays in delivering new formulation and packaging for an existing product. A planned reformulation seen as necessary to preserving market share had been delayed for fifteen months, and the management team was concerned about the effect that delay would have on the company’s market share, and on the continued profitability of the drug. There was even some doubt from management that a reformulation was still cost-effective after such a delay. Ozmosi had to work with existing forecast models, modifying these to reflect recent market research findings [...]

Pharma Forecasting Case Study – Valuing the Impact of Development Delays2017-07-18T19:41:48+00:00

Forecasting – Applying Pharmaceutical Valuation Approach in the Foster Care Setting

2013-08-28T10:59:52+00:00

The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia–Policy Lab approached Ozmosi for help in supporting its application for federal funding to establish a new organizational structure to better support children in the Philadelphia foster care system. The proposed structure was designed to provide a consistent network of support for the children as they passed from one agency to another in the foster care system. A small-scale pilot program had demonstrated that such a structure could result in improved success in placing children and reduced behavioral issues for those children, ultimately reducing costs. Using a patient-flow model, Ozmosi outlined and tracked the current flow of [...]

Forecasting – Applying Pharmaceutical Valuation Approach in the Foster Care Setting2013-08-28T10:59:52+00:00