The oncology team of a major multinational pharmaceutical company asked Ozmosi to provide additional forecasting support for a newly acquired product. They needed to update and validate the current forecast models to identify the most effective development strategies for the compound across all indications. The team was concerned with how to get their product to the most critical patients and wanted to explore strategies to maximize market share and minimize losses to cannibalization.
Ozmosi provided global forecasts for multiple indications across multiple products, assessing the value impact of multiple development scenarios. The scenarios we developed considered the effects of differences in launch timing and pricing, as well as interactions with existing products, on market share and profit projections. All of the options were evaluated in the context of the company’s full portfolio, ensuring that our conclusions were based on the net impact on the company—not just the outcome of an individual indication.
Ozmosi’s forecasts coupled with a portfolio approach led the team to modify the development strategy for one of the indications, to reach patients more effectively and maximize potential market share. Although modifying an initial development strategy was an unusual and unexpected move for the company, the thoroughness of the analysis and the presentation of results within the context of the entire business unit (rather than a single product or indication) allowed the decision to be made with full alignment from the team.
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