Forecasting

Forecasting2018-05-01T17:43:44+00:00

Reliable Forecasting Models

Accurate, reliable forecasts are critical for creating a viable clinical pipeline, directing development decisions, allocating resources, and shaping strategy. 

Our proprietary pressure-tested forecasting methodology and comprehensive industry knowledge give you the tools you need to pinpoint opportunities and highlight vulnerabilities.

  • Industry Expert Panels: Understand current treatment regimens and reveal patients’ unmet needs
  • Forecasting Models: Develop criteria for driving strong adoption at launch using our adoption-rate models. Identify likely ranges for patient share using our patient-share models.
  • Customized Data Analysis: Your business is unique.  We’ll provide revenue stream analysis and key financial metrics based on target product profile (TPP) development outcomes, all set up as a profit-and-loss statement to take directly to your C-suite presentation.

Case Study

Estimating the Prevalence of Orphan Diseases

When in-house experts’ forecasts for the market potential of a treatment for an orphan disease conflicted, the management team at a large, multinational pharmaceutical company turned to Ozmosi to resolve the differences.

Addressing the central questions required a full literature review, including analysis of more than 30 individual studies released between the 1990s and 2013, as well as physician surveys, internal studies, advisory board results, and other sources. We also conducted in-depth interviews with the company’s two in-house epidemiology experts working on the project. Projections were complicated by the fact that the disease, which affects fewer than 10 people per million, had no associated diagnostic codes, or even much medical consensus around diagnostic criteria.

Ozmosi took a nonconventional approach to estimating the incidence and prevalence of the disease, combining data from insurance claims with information collected from specialty medical centers that worked with individuals who had the disease. As a result, we were able to deliver estimates that the entire team—including the individuals responsible for the earlier conflicting forecasts—could agree with.

Ozmosi’s involvement in the project extended well beyond providing a simple epidemiological analysis. We were asked to summarize and present all known information in a manner that would allow the client’s internal experts to align their forecasts. We provided detailed analysis of data on patient population estimates by country and delivered a report that supported country-level forecasts across the company’s global market. As a result, experts across organizational functions and geographic territories were able to agree on an estimate to drive strategy for the drug.

A multinational pharmaceutical firm asked Ozmosi to provide forecasts to assess the market impact of delays in delivering new formulation and packaging for an existing product. A planned reformulation seen as necessary to preserving market share had been delayed for fifteen months, and the management team was concerned about the effect that delay would have on the company’s market share, and on the continued profitability of the drug. There was even some doubt from management that a reformulation was still cost-effective after such a delay. Ozmosi had to work with existing forecast models, modifying these to reflect recent market research findings and providing analyses to highlight the key issues and outcomes.

The analysis vividly demonstrated the costs of delaying the reformulation further—including tens of millions of dollars in lost sales each year. Ozmosi’s presentation illustrated in concrete terms the likely results of additional delays including the impact of each additional month.

Based on Ozmosi’s presentation, the team came together around a decision to pursue the reformulation and is now moving forward to bring the reformulated treatment to market as quickly as possible.

Case Study

Valuing the Impact of Development Delays

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