PHARMA FORECASTING CASE STUDY – Estimating the Prevalence of Orphan Diseases


When in-house experts’ forecasts for the market potential of a treatment for an orphan disease conflicted, the management team at a large, multinational pharmaceutical company turned to Ozmosi to resolve the differences. Addressing the central questions required a full literature review, including analysis of more than 30 individual studies released between the 1990s and 2013, as well as physician surveys, internal studies, advisory board results, and other sources. We also conducted in-depth interviews with the company’s two in-house epidemiology experts working on the project. Projections were complicated by the fact that the disease, which affects fewer than 10 people per million, [...]